Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 0.015331 0.017383 0.019614 0.022220 0.025183 0.028450 0.032325
2025-04-13 0.011547 0.014222 0.017384 0.021401 0.026378 0.032350 0.040079
2025-04-20 0.010076 0.013131 0.016953 0.022096 0.028853 0.037454 0.049275
2025-04-27 0.008995 0.012275 0.016573 0.022637 0.031000 0.042174 0.058312
2025-05-04 0.008218 0.011670 0.016381 0.023305 0.033266 0.047150 0.068095
2025-05-11 0.007330 0.010783 0.015666 0.023108 0.034225 0.050314 0.075548
2025-05-18 0.006659 0.010116 0.015167 0.023125 0.035429 0.053863 0.083827
2025-05-25 0.006003 0.009392 0.014495 0.022785 0.036014 0.056475 0.090853
2025-06-01 0.005600 0.009010 0.014290 0.023119 0.037638 0.060786 0.100920
2025-06-08 0.005141 0.008487 0.013808 0.022950 0.038410 0.063767 0.109046
2025-06-15 0.004902 0.008298 0.013837 0.023603 0.040576 0.069186 0.121759
2025-06-22 0.004426 0.007665 0.013073 0.022840 0.040244 0.070334 0.127105
2025-06-29 0.004068 0.007211 0.012584 0.022528 0.040701 0.072940 0.135427
2025-07-06 0.003661 0.006636 0.011836 0.021687 0.040136 0.073681 0.140405
2025-07-13 0.003533 0.006546 0.011937 0.022392 0.042456 0.079861 0.156233
2025-07-20 0.003391 0.006420 0.011958 0.022941 0.044523 0.085735 0.172030
2025-07-27 0.003278 0.006335 0.012044 0.023617 0.046889 0.092376 0.189996
2025-08-03 0.003063 0.006036 0.011699 0.023418 0.047496 0.095604 0.201273
2025-08-10 0.002893 0.005810 0.011475 0.023436 0.048535 0.099777 0.214917
2025-08-17 0.002697 0.005516 0.011090 0.023090 0.048786 0.102340 0.225333
2025-08-24 0.002589 0.005391 0.011038 0.023429 0.050505 0.108119 0.243373
2025-08-31 0.002438 0.005165 0.010758 0.023258 0.051105 0.111545 0.256441
2025-09-07 0.002377 0.005124 0.010860 0.023920 0.053595 0.119308 0.280251